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Call Off The Panic Dogs

Initial reports of human-to-human bird flu transmission way be way "ahead of the news cycle."

According to PandemicFlu.gov:

There is an ongoing WHO investigation into a family cluster of H5N1-infected persons in Indonesia. A WHO team, including a CDC staff person, is on site and collaborating with the Indonesian Ministry of Health on this investigation. At this time, human-to-human transmission among this family cluster cannot be ruled out. However, genetic analyses by WHO reference laboratories at CDC and the University of Hong Kong indicate no unusual changes in these viruses compared with other H5N1 viruses isolated recently.

Human-to-human transmission can range along a continuum, from occasional, dead-end human-to-human transmission, to efficient (easily transmitted) and sustained human-to-human transmission...

So far, the spread of H5N1 virus from person to person has been rare, inefficient (not easily transmitted), and unsustained.

It would not be surprising to see limited human-to-human transmission during the current H5N1 outbreak in Indonesia, as has been seen in the past.

However, efficient (easily transmitted) and sustained human-to-human transmission would be needed to trigger a pandemic. There is no indication that this is what is happening in Indonesia.

You can put the duct tape away for now.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  25 May 2006
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