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OSM's Iraq Pre-War Intelligence Project

The origanization formerly known as "Pajamas Media," now OSM, is hosting a Pre-War Intelligence Carnival on Iraq.

Thanks to the public record, and literally reams of public reports available with a few mouse clicks, it's not that difficult to sort through what we thought we knew before the war from what we actually found out.

Contrary to popular belief, the Iraq Survey Group did, in fact, find hard evidence of a WMD program inside the former Saddam Regime - even though vast stockpiles were never found.

This post focuses on WMD seed stocks, which Iraq held on to and which would have enabled it to quickly produce bio-weapons, according to the reports. Here's part of the Joint Congressional Resolution authorizing use of force against Iraq:

"Whereas after the liberation of Kuwait in 1991, Iraq entered into a United Nations sponsored cease-fire agreement pursuant to which Iraq unequivocally agreed, among other things, to eliminate its nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs and the means to deliver and develop them, and to end its support for international terrorism..."

Here is what UNMOVIC, as reported by Hans Blix' pre-war Cluster Document, told the world just days before Operation Iraqi Freedom began:

"Iraq currently possesses the technology and materials, including fermenters, bacterial growth media and seed stock, to enable it to produce anthrax. Many of the skilled personnel familiar with anthrax production have been transferred to civilian industries. There does not appear to be any choke points, which would prevent Iraq from producing anthrax on at least the scale of its pre-1991 level...

"Since Iraq produced more botulinum toxin than other agents and it still possesses the expertise and possibly the seed stock, material inputs (such as growth media), and equipment (fermenters), then production at least at the scale of its pre-1991 level could be rapidly recommenced...

"Although agent G spores produced by Iraq in 1990 could still be viable in 2003 if properly stored, Iraq probably has seed stocks and can produce this agent quickly following a decision to do so...

"In 1985, a biological weapons group was established at the Muthanna State Establishment (MSE), Iraq’s main CW production agency. Iraq declared that, starting in April 1986, it acquired a range of biological isolates (seed stocks) both locally and abroad for its BW programme."

Here's what the Iraq Survey Group, headed by Charles Duelfer, found after Saddam's Regime collapsed:

"Iraq retained some BW-related seed stocks until their discovery after Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)...

"Dr. Rihab Rashid Taha Al 'Azzawi, head of the bacterial program claims she retained BW seed stocks until early 1992 when she destroyed them. ISG has not found a means of verifying this. Some seed stocks were retained by another Iraqi official until 2003 when they were recovered by ISG..."

"Two vials of smallpox vaccine seed stock labeled 'Rijks Instituut V.D. Volksgezondheid—10 ml seed virus—L1 K2—Strain Elstree—Utrecht' were discovered at ASVI. These two large vials may be the seed vials referred to in the 1994 report to the NMD, however, SMEs note that the vials were markedly different in content and appearance. No locally produced vials labeled 'Elstree' were discovered at ASVI. ISG is awaiting confirmation on the contents of these vials..."

So while stockpiles weren't found, seed stocks were. And Dr. Rihab Rashid Taha Al 'Azzawi (also known as "Dr. Germ") has provided no evidence she destroyed what seed stocks she had. And, remember, Iraq had a sophisticated deception program (which Duelfer also found); hiding more vials of seed stocks in an area the size of California wouldn't seem to be all that difficult.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  17 November 2005
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