Osama bin Laden has sent out another cave-gram, putting his and Musab al Zarqawi's reputation on the line in their effort to thwart next month's elections in Iraq:

"In the balance of Islam, this constitution is infidel and therefore everyone who participates in this election will be considered infidels," he said.

Why would bin Laden put his personal prestige on the line in fighting against the inevitable: next month's elections? If there was no nexus between Saddam Hussein's government and bin Laden - truly no connection at all - why would the bloodthirsty madman even bother with it?

Against this backdrop, the drumbeat of defeatism continues from the left. Here's Kos:

So how long before the 101st Fighting Keyboardists and the radio blowhards realize that the war is folly, and their allegiance to the neocon agenda has led the nation into a $200 billion meat grinder?

If this were truly a meat grinder for Americans, why would bin Laden sound so worried? If Iraq was only a "diversion from the war on terror," why would bin Laden even care?

Maybe because it's not just America that's about to pin another embarrassing loss on him. But bin Laden is about to lose a critical battle to Muslims. Iraqis know this. Prime Minister Allawi said this during his famous White House press conference last fall:

Let me -- let me take a minute to explain to you something, a factual event. I meet, personally, every now and then with the fringes of the so-called resistance to try and talk them into respecting law and order and withdraw their arms. And I ask them in a very honest, very open way, I say to them, "What do you want to achieve? Could you know exactly what you want to achieve? Do you want to bring Saddam back from the hole in the ground, living like a rat?

Do you want to bring him back to rule Iraq? Or do you want to bring bin Laden or similar persons to bin Laden to rule Iraq? If you want to do this, we will fight you room to room, house to house. If you want to be part of the political process, you have to be part of the political process, you are welcome.

Bin Laden doesn't want a political process, because he can't win it. And if the world sees he can't even win over other Muslims in one of the most important battles al Qaeda has yet waged, they'll view him as a laughingstock.

If they can view him at all. For now, all we have are cave-grams.

MORE: At Hell To Pay, we get this take: "Okay, we all knew bin Laden was a giggly little half-cooked meatball, but now he’s just plain dumb." Tiger Hawk also has some thoughts.