Some folks, including Mickey Kaus, have been pointing to the Mystery Pollster's analysis of all the disparate polls in Ohio, suggesting they're pretty consistent and really not such great news for President Bush. The reason: Almost all the polls show Bush topping out at 47 percent in Ohio.

Well, let's take a look at Kerry's percentages among various pollsters in the national horserace as of Thursday morning: 47, 46, 46, 42, 47, 48, 44.5, 45, 44, 47, 44. He tops 47 percent once but falls beneath it seven times.

Now for Bush: 50, 46, 47, 49, 47, 48, 49.5, 47, 52, 52, 48, 50. Bush falls below 47 percent once, topping it eight times.

Mystery pollster calls the wild card the "incumbent factor" - meaning a showing of 47 percent for an incumbent telegraphs a loss. But how about the "I'm really not too hot on my candidate but I'm just saying I'm going to vote for him anyway" factor?

Even in the most favorable of the polls for Kerry, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, half of all who will vote for Kerry say they're voting against Bush, not for Kerry. Half. But three-quarters of all Bush supporters say their vote is about backing the president.

Are happy voters likely voters? We'll find out.

In the mean time, the polls are still a mess. But maybe not the kind of mess some people are hoping for.