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50 Percent

From the CBS report on the latest CBS-NYTimes poll on the presidential horse race:

Potentially more important, Mr. Bush is not breaking the 50 percent mark in many recent surveys — falling short of a benchmark some analysts feel is key for an incumbent president. In the CBS/NYT poll, the president's approval rating, like his poll number, is 49 percent.

"The fact that the president is not at fifty percent I think is a sign of real problems for him," said Kerry's chief pollster, Mark Mellman. He sees undecided voters favoring Kerry.

That's right. In fact, to find an incumbent who won re-election without cracking the 50 percent mark, you have to go all the way back to...to...to...

Bill Clinton.

If this were a DVD, how many of you would simply fast-forward to Jan. 20?

By Ed Moltzen  ·  31 October 2004
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New Yorkology

If you haven't checked it out, take a walk over to New Yorkology - the new, New York City travel blog published by Amy Langfield.

If you're not from New York, it will make you want to visit - and guide you from arrival to departure. If you are from New York, it's a cultural equivalent of "Zagat's" but with color, more topics and more fun.

And it's as easy to navigate as mid-town early on a Saturday morning!

By Ed Moltzen  ·  31 October 2004
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Rich People In Costumes

New York Social Diary presents us with photos of rich and famous people dressing up for Halloween.

It's hard to say whether this is more sad, or scary.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  31 October 2004
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Warmth, Candor and the Black Vote

All you need to know about John Kerry's commitment to civil rights is this:

He has positioned himself like an index finger twined around its middle finger with Al Sharpton, the walking, breathing fraud who steals our air to spread hate, myths and hoaxes.

It was Kerry, playing the part of the index finger, who expressed his utter joy when Sharpton - the middle finger - threw his endorsement to the senator from Massachusetts:

�Over the course of the past year, I have come to appreciate the warmth and candor Reverend Al Sharpton exhibited in so many primary debates and forums across America. No one can argue with his ability to cut through the double-talk we see coming from this Administration."

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Steven Pagones didn't enjoy the same "warmth and candor" from Sharpton. Remember Pagones? He was the man who Sharpton accused of taking part in the gang sexual assault of Tawana Brawley.

There were a couple of problems, though. There was no gang. There was no sexual assault. The whole story was made up.

And when law enforcement in the Hudson Valley of New York wanted to get to the bottom of it all, it ran into a stone wall.

Sharpton convinced Brawley and her family to snub their noses at a grand jury investigating that case back in 1988. Kerry, who reminds folks he used to be a prosecutor slightly less often than he reminds them he served in Vietnam, is apparently unbothered by this.

To this minute, Sharpton has never apologized. Steven Pagones had to leave a promising career as a prosecutor in his own right after he was smeared with the false charges.

"I thank Reverend Sharpton for his endorsement and look forward to working with him and all Democrats in the months ahead," Kerry said, accepting his help from America's best-known middle finger.

Why is this important, now?

Take it away, John Zobgy:(Via Reuters)

Kerry is still getting the support of only 84 percent of black voters, short of the more than 90 percent claimed by Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and enough of a shortfall to make a difference in a few critical states in such a tight election.

So when predominantly African-American precincts across the country fail to back Kerry in the numbers he needs, who will be the top spokesman for the campaign charging vote suppression and fraud? Rev. Hoax.

Democratic leaders make their choices and the results follow.

Says D.C. Thornton:

Someday, black Democrats will put their foot down and express their outrage for once again being taken for granted by the DNC. After the snubbing of the late Maynard Jackson for the party chairmanship, as well as the party�s unwillingness to back former New York gubernatorial candidate Carl McCall, it makes me wonder why nobody has thrown up their hands and said �Enough!".

There may be no hands being thrown up in the air during this election. Maybe all it will take are a few middle fingers.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  30 October 2004
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The Comeback Kid Decade?

Are the '80s making a comeback?

You might get that idea, looking at this list of top-selling CDs.

So if you didn't get your fill of Rod Stewart over the past 30 years, you're not too late.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  30 October 2004
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Metfella

Mob reporter extraordinaire Jerry Capeci broke this story earlier this week:

John Franco, who has been a �go-to-guy� during his 14 years as a relief pitcher for the New York Mets, has also long been a go-to-guy for mobsters looking for free tickets to Mets games, Gang Land has learned.

Despite strict prohibitions by Major League Baseball against associating with organized crime figures, Franco has had a long, chummy relationship with members of the Bonanno family, according to FBI documents obtained by Gang Land.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Capeci also reports that Franco might turn out to be a witness in an upcoming mob trial.

What with the BALCO investigation, Pete Rose, the Dale Berra-Keith Hernandez scandal, and a shady, on-again, off-again history of ballplayers consorting with various "undesirables," (Joe DiMaggio even once "crossed paths" with Albert Anastasia) Bud Selig may want to make a statement with Franco.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  30 October 2004
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An Open Message To Osama Bin Laden

Dear Freak:

Just saw your videotape.

So you want America to change its policy? Well, it's hard to say how much of a change this is, but here's the policy: (Get a pencil and take notes. We're busy with an election so there's no time to repeat it.)

1) We're looking for you.
2) When we find you, we're going to kill you.
3) We're going to kill the people who are working with you.
4) Afghanistan is a free country and women are voting, going to school and walking in public with their faces and hair showing.
5) Iraq is a free country and will have democratic elections in January. Women will have rights and power in that country, too.
6) Why are you still reading this? You better go hide. Because we're looking for you, and when we find you we're going to kill you.

Signed,

America (Red States and Blue States)

By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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Ask A Stupid Question
By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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Travel Tip: Carry On, Carry Close

Here's what can happen when you check your bags on your way out of JFK Airport:

Queens District Attorney Richard A. Brown, joined by Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Superintendent of Police Samuel J. Plumeri, Jr., announced today that luggage handlers for Swissport USA, Incorporated -- a ground service provider at John F. Kennedy International Airport -- have been charged with grand larceny and possession of stolen property in the unlawful removal of lap top computers, cameras, printers and other expensive electronic equipment valued at $23,000 from airline passenger baggage.

Some of the stolen property was later sold to undercover detectives and on eBay, an online retail auction company.

Note to crooks: It's usually a bad idea to try to fence stolen goods on the web, or to cops.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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Never Mind

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Kerry Campaign To Focus On Natural Race Horses Going Forward

By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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Caution: Falling Circulation

Now the Washington Post is losing readers:

For the first nine months of 2004, Post daily and Sunday circulation declined 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the same period of the prior year. For the nine months ended September 26, 2004, average daily circulation at The Post totaled 709,500 and average Sunday circulation totaled 1,014,000.

Its profits, though, were up considerably.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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The Video

If it's really such an important message, how come Osama bin Laden didn't give it? How come it went to ABC News, and not al Jazeera?

By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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Voting Rites

Howard Dean just sent out an email to supporters:

Some Republicans see the voting booth as a country club where a few people decide that others just don't belong. They reject the foundation of our democracy: we believe in the sacred principle of One Person, One Vote.

Well, that is, unless the person is fighting for our country, overseas, and didn't get an absentee ballot because a Democratic governor didn't send them out in time.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  29 October 2004
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9th Circuit Sense of Humor

Timex and a film production company, Polar Bear Productions, are snared in a legal dispute over a T.V. commercial they made in the '90s that featured kayakers wearing Timex watches.

Timex used the commercial long after their license with the producers expired. Lawsuits ensued. In a ruling sending part of the case back to a lower court, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals noted the history of the case:

The promotion was so popular with Timex that it just kept on ticking and continued using the footage well beyond any permission to do so.

Who says judges on the 9th Circuit are uptight? (The judges even footnoted the fact that "keeps on ticking" is a registered trademark of Timex.)

By Ed Moltzen  ·  28 October 2004
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Iraq Update

This news moved earlier today out of Central Command:

LOCAL IRAQI CITIZEN FOILS CAR BOMB PLOT

MOSUL, Iraq -- A Mosul citizen prevented a car bomb attack after the anonymous individual informed Multi-National Forces of the suspected explosive device in the Mosul neighborhood of Al Wahda on Oct. 27.

Soldiers from 3rd Battalion, 21st Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade, 25th Infantry Division (Stryker Brigade Combat Team) responded based on the citizen’s information, and confirmed anti-Iraqi forces rigged the car with explosives. An Explosive Ordnance Disposal team destroyed the car bomb.

The citizen’s ability to identify the car bomb and courageously inform the appropriate authorities potentially saved the lives of Iraqi Security Forces, Multi-National Forces and Iraqi citizens.

Looks like more and more Iraqis are of the opinion that, "enough is enough."

But why bother focusing on what's happening today, when it's easier to focus on something that may or may not have happened a year and a half ago?

By Ed Moltzen  ·  28 October 2004
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Static

Howard Stern accused Secretary of State Colin Powell of getting his son hired as FCC chairman.

Powell's response: "...(T)his is all just so much nonsense."

The secretary refused to say anything personal about the person who made the accusation, when he gave an interview to Ron Insana of CNBC.

Elsewhere, the reviews of the Howard Stern-Michael Powell radio debate (where the nepotism allegations were front and center) are decidedly mixed. This from Alan Sniffen, who runs the New York Radio Message Board:

I've now listened to Howard Stern's attempted ambush of Michael Powell several times and it is clear that Stern is so much less than he thinks he is. He blew this one big time and, to be fair, when it comes to self promotion he rarely blows it.

I think his biggest error was in thinking that the whole broadcast world works like his show does...The level playing field of being on someone else's show turned Stern into a frustrated caller with an agenda.

Without Robin clapping and his staff heaping accolades on him, his charges of nepotism and lack of qualifications were so thorougly countered by Powell's responses that Stern had no where to go but waffle around about how he was the victim of a conspiracy.

It might not have been that one-sided (Powell didn't "thoroughly counter" as much as he simply "denied" nepotism charges). It was interesting radio but, like political debate these days, don't count on it having changed any minds.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  28 October 2004
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Tick Tick Tick Tick

Is time running out?

Yasser Arafat Watch
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By Ed Moltzen  ·  28 October 2004
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Where They Stand On Arafat

This is from a Q&A Sen. John Kerry did last year: (Emphasis added)

Q: How important to you is the peace objective between Israel and Palestinians and what would you do differently than the Bush administration to achieve that peace? In addition, would you be willing to work with Yassar Arafat on the peace process?

Sen. John F. Kerry: It's one of the most important trouble spots in the world around which a lot of the world's tensions are related and it is imperative for a president to be deeply involved in the peace process—The Bush administration abandoned that involvement for more than a year. I will reengage in the Middle East and work with all parties AND I'll bring together other nations to help in the process. I believe peace is attainable.

By contrast, this is what President Bush said during the second debate with Kerry:

You know, I made some decisions on Israel; that's unpopular. I wouldn't deal with Arafat because I felt like he had let the former President down, and I don't think he's the kind of person that can lead toward a Palestinian state.

If Arafat survives his latest near-death experience, there would certainly be a difference between how President Bush will approach him (he won't) versus Kerry (he would.)

By Ed Moltzen  ·  27 October 2004
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Husband Sentences Wife To Death; Immigration Says, "Oh Well."

Woman flees Pakistan with kids to escape abusive husband. She lands in the U.S. and seeks asylum.

Meanwhile, husband issues a death edict against his wife.

U.S. immigration officials say: That's not our problem, lady. Go back home.

Meanwhile, she's been arrested and is in the lockup as she fights the expulsion order.

You can read the whole thing here.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  27 October 2004
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Lileks v. Sullivan

James Lileks fisks Andrew Sullivan's endorsement of John Kerry:

Sullivan: "Kerry has said again and again that he will not hesitate to defend this country and go on the offensive against Al Qaeda. I see no reason whatsoever why he shouldn't."

Lileks: "This would be a reasonable statement if Sen. Kerry had just popped fully-formed from Zeus’ brow, howling for justice, but there’s the inconvenient matter of three decades of public pronouncements that makes one wonder how he defines “defend(ing) this country,” and what he consider to be an offensive. No? Or am I being unfair? Perhaps."

And there is so much more.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  27 October 2004
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She Flew All Night

Bare Naked Ladies' Steve Page isn't impressed with some recent work by Celine Dion - a video with apparent product placement that he saw on a recent flight - and he writes about it:

There, on all the screens, Celine stands, emotionally raw and vulnerable as she pours her heart out about her deep passion for flying Air Canada. She nearly begs us to join her on her aeronautic adventures. And the prospect is alluring.

As majestic shots of airplanes and baggage carousels are intercut with erotically-charged footage of Celine overcome with religious rapture at the sight of an airplane hangar or an electronically-updating departures and arrivals screen, the viewer/listener can’t help but be overcome by the softness of it all.

He then mentions a book of photos that includes Celine Dion and her kids, and suggests the kids were treated as - please, his words here - "bags of meat." One has to give Page credit, though. It's probably the most passionate review of her work since she started at Caeser's Palace.

It might be too much to ask for her to respond. But a Canadian version of the U.S. "East Coast-West Coast" rap wars would be fun to watch.

MORE: Michele sends this comment (a glitch below apparently blocked it): "The book is one of those horrid Ann Geddes books, in which kids are treated like, well, bags of meat."

Here's the book. But they do look like happy little bags of meat!

By Ed Moltzen  ·  27 October 2004
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444 Days

By a week from Thursday, we should all be in Day 2 of the Democratic lawsuits challenging Election Day results, so there is a very good chance some noteworthy news will be underplayed.

Nov. 4 will mark the 25th anniversary of the start of the Iran Hostage Crisis. It was a Sunday, and the network interrupted the NFL game of the week for a special report. The news showed grainy film of U.S. diplomats and embassy personnel blindfolded and being walked in front of a screaming, fist-waving throng of Iranian superextremists.

For the next 444 days, as Ted Koppel told us, we were America Held Hostage.

It was the first, ugly shot at innocent Americans by crazed Islamic radicals � the first shot of many in the next two and a half decades. At the time, President Jimmy Carter unwisely took little interest as they overthrew the Shah of Iran and then, even more unwisely, allowed the Shah to enter the U.S. nine months later for cancer treatments.

The Shah had been a good � not great, good � ally for the U.S. He allowed us access to Iranian territory to conduct surveillance on the Soviets. He was an ally of Israel. He also bled the U.S. dry by forcing OPEC to jack up oil prices and he beat down dissent in his own country through his cruel secret police, SAVAK. The Soviets played on his unpopularity, sending radio programming into Iran practically begging Islamic radicals to rise up.

And rise up they did.

For more than a year, the radicals held more than 50 U.S. diplomats, military personnel and civilians against their will. Despite swelling American outrage, Carter waited and waited, hoping for some kind of diplomatic opening to occur. Then he sent Special Forces into Iran on the ill-fated Desert One mission, and eight of them died in a fiery crash during a sandstorm. After Carter lost the 1980 election, he continued working to free the hostages� release. Finally, on the eve of Ronald Reagan�s inauguration, he agreed to release $9 billion in frozen Iranian assets as part of the deal to bring them home.

As Kevin Hermening, who, as a 20-year old Marine at the time was the youngest hostage, thinks that was a bad idea. �Iran walked away with no cost in blood or treasure,� he told The Command Post. �In essence, the terrorist organizations, those who put a face on terrorism � al Qaeda, Hamas and others � they get their support from governments. By not extracting a penalty, or anything punitive, I think it simply encouraged more acts against Americans.�

The Iran Crisis also taught us something else � something that seems to be forgotten. Blue-collar Americans began demonstrating, spontaneously, outside Iran embassies in Washington and New York. (The only other memorable demonstrations in the U.S. during the late �70s involved the words, �Disco Sucks.�)


It was Topic A. Everybody wanted �our Americans� home immediately. It brought out a sense of patriotism and nationalism (although Ted Kennedy, then running against Carter for the Democratic nomination for president, took apparent delight in public criticism of U.S. actions embracing the Shah and ignoring the revolutionaries.)

Why the history lesson on something that happened 25 years ago?

Consider �Tehran Mary,� one of the Iranian �students� who seized the embassy, grabbed the hostages, and acted at the behest of the Ayatollah. Her real name is Massoumeh Ebtekar and today she�s a vice president in Iran. (Hermening, by the way, recalls hostages had much worse nicknames for her at the time than �Tehran Mary.�)

Consider the same folks who violated international law, sent a modern Persian Gulf state back in time to the 15th Century.

Consider the same folks sponsored the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers (according to Richard Clarke and others).

Consider the same folks agreed to give help to al Qaeda (according to the 9-11 Commission report.)

Consider these same folks are building nuclear capabilities.

Consider these same folks chose to have earthquake victims die in Bam rather than receive U.S. help.

It started on a football Sunday 25 years ago.

The hostages did come home, 444 days later. They landed in the U.S. at Stewart Airport in Newburgh, N.Y. and it looked like five million people came out to greet them, wave flags, show yellow ribbons, give the thumbs up and flip the bird to unflattering drawings of the Ayatollah. The crisis was over. But in many other ways, it has never ended.

***Suggested Reading***

Taken Hostage : The Iran Hostage Crisis and America's First Encounter with Radical Islam (Politics and Society in Twentieth Century America). By David Farber.

In the Shadow of the Ayatollah: A CIA Hostage in Iran. By William J. Daugherty.

The Destined Hour. By Barry Rosen and Barbara Rosen.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  26 October 2004
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"Look Again"

The latest Zogby poll shows President Bush maintaining a three-point lead over John Kerry in the horse race for the White House.

Key quote from John Zogby: "If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to undecideds, look again -- there may not be enough left."

Of course, this could all be bizarro polling. Rasmussen Reports, which had Bush leading Kerry for about six weeks solid, all of a sudden showed Kerry in the lead yesterday. Zogby, on the other hand, has had Kerry leading for most of the year and even once remarked the race was Kerry's to lose.

It looks like the two polls just passed in the night.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  26 October 2004
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They'll Need A New Name For These Places

Can they really be called safe houses any more?

MSNBC News Services Updated: 3:07 a.m. ET Oct. 26, 2004

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The U.S. military said Tuesday that an aide to Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed in an airstrike in the militant stronghold of Fallujah.

The early-morning strike hit a known safehouse being used by al-Zarqawi’s terrorist network, killing a “known associate,” a military statement said.

The terrorists, essentially, have two and a half months before elections in Iraq. They're dropping like flies. And the clock is ticking.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  26 October 2004
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A Crude Awakening

So gas is now $2.19 a gallon for regular. A week's commute in a mid-sized sedan will run about $50.

The NYMEX web site, which updates the running price on a barrell of crude, is becoming more popular than Drudge.

Most news accounts, like this one, point the blame finger at the Russians.

They didn't want U.S. oil companies to buy Yukos, because Yukos was one of their biggest oil companies. So they did what Russians do: They arrested Yukos' chairman and threw the company into a shambles. Now Russian oil can't get to China, the Chinese are getting it from OPEC and OPEC doesn't have what the U.S. needs.

So, on Long Island, it's $2.19 a gallon for regular.

This isn't the 1970s, when an Arab oil embargo caused a 300 percent jump in prices in the span of a year. There aren't any gas lines. Fist fights aren't breaking out at the pumps. Nobody has hung any "No Gas" signs.

But, suddenly, John Kerry's "I'll Get Tough With the Arabs" rhetoric has stopped because the Arabs don't lock up their oil executives and dismantle their pipeline operations. And saving a few thousand shaggy musk oxen in Alaska, at some point, won't be a good enough reason to keep the pumps and oil extraction equipment out of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Eventually, someone will come in and take Yukos' place and get the oil to China. Oil will drop back down under $40 a barrell. Commuting will be a little cheaper again.

But if you're a wild musk ox, get ready to pack your bags, Pappi. We need that real estate.

NYMEX is nowhere near as interesting as Drudge.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  25 October 2004
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Down

GeorgeWBush.com seems to have been down for the past several hours today, as of 9 p.m. Eastern.

However, no information about this seems to have crossed the wires...

By Ed Moltzen  ·  24 October 2004
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NY Times Correction Du Jour

Can you imagine? The shame of coming off as...as... "discount:"

An article on Aug. 29 in T: Women's Fashion magazine about hair and makeup trends misidentified the hairstylist for Gucci's fall runway show. He was Orlando Pita, not Guido Palau. Another article in that issue, about collectible accessories, misstated the price of the Shoulder B bag from Hermès. It is $7,000, not $5,550. These corrections were delayed by an editing lapse.

Harumph.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  24 October 2004
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Iran And The Bomb

When Ronald Reagan was running for president in 1980, and Iran was holding 52 U.S. diplomats and civilians hostage, there was a joke making the circuit that went like this:

Q: What's flat as a pancake and glows in the dark? A: Iran, after Reagan becomes president.

Well, Reagan became president and within minutes - literally minutes - those hostages were put on a plane for their trip back to the U.S. But the joke was apparently not lost on the Islamic militants who had taken over Iran in 1979. Today, they are seeking all the ingredients for a nuclear arsenal and make what seems only half-hearted assertions it will be for "peaceful," rather than aggressive, purposes.

Here's what Iran President Khatami said last week:

"If our right is recognized and they admit that Iran can have access to peaceful nuclear technology and all the required provisions are made for banning the production of atomic bomb in the world, the issue will be settled."

Translation: Get Israel to give up its nukes, and then we'll talk. Maybe. In the meantime, we'll keep AQ Khan's birthday on our calendar and always remember to send him a card.

Right now, President Bush says we should keep up sanctions, and give the EU and U.N. the chance to pressure Iran into its senses. John Kerry says, yeah, but let's give them nuclear fuel, too.

Maybe there's a third way to handle this. It seems there's an information deficit in the Iranian countryside. Blogger Hossein Derakhshan, a native Iranian, says people in the country would likely oppose what Khatami's government is doing:

Needless to say that if people were aware of how easily this technology, if not curbed by the UN, could be used by the regime to produce nuclear weapons, and how such power could weaken the already humble foundations of democracy in Iran by giving more military power to the most radical and fundamentalist parts of the regime, they'd hardly be backing it as they do now – if we accept that they really are.

Maybe it's time to start letting the Iranian people know what's going on. Maybe it's time to feed them radio programming - or, more radio programming - from inside Iraq and clue them in on what's happening. Instead of nuclear fuel, send them radio waves. Instead of platitudes in French, give them realities in Farsi.

The Soviets fomented the 1979 Islamic revolution by bombarding the Iranians with anti-American, anti-Shah propoganda over the radio. This time, it couldn't hurt for the U.S. to try the same thing.

And if that doesn't work, well...Reagan is now gone, but Khatami need only look over the border and take a look at some of Abu al Zarqawi's safe houses these days.

That's no joke.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  24 October 2004
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Who Ya Gonna Believe?

CBS News collaborator Josh Marshall is working feverishly to pump new life into John Kerry's Bush-gave-bin-Laden-a-pass-at-Tora-Bora story:

What you simply cannot say is that the whole thing never happened. And yet that is precisely what the president and the vice president are now doing: Simply denying everything. Who you gonna believe? Me or your lyin' eyes?

They are, in old fashioned English, lying.

His proof point? Old Washington Post stories - stories which had some blatant errors in them (such as reporting that Gen. Tommy Franks ran the war from Tampa. Franks was actually running the war from the "area of responsibility," as his book points out.)

As Franks' second-in-command, retired Gen. Michael DeLong, said to The Command Post few weeks ago, Kerry simply doesn't know what he's talking about:

Sen. Kerry didn’t know what happened. He’s no more better informed than the armchair generals who went after us (on TV.) And what was going on at the time, where bin Laden was in the Tora Bora caves, there was a tribal area that was full of civilians. You couldn’t go up there with soldiers of any force – especially us – because we would have been fighting them to get to bin Laden. Whether we would have gotten to him remains to be seen. This was a tribe on the border, and the only people who were accepted up there was the Pakistani army. You know how tough guarding a border is – with Texas and New Mexico and Arizona for example.

We didn’t kill any civilians unnecessarily up there. We know for a fact from our multiple intelligence sources that we wounded bin Laden. But yes, he did get away. If we had killed a number of civilians, our chances of getting elections in Afghanistan would have never happened. It was a diplomatic, not a political call. It was a call to get this country back together again. We knew the death or capture of bin Laden was important. But getting rid of al Qaeda and getting the country feeling good, feeling nationalistic, was important.

Who ya gonna believe? One of the men who called the shots, or a senator stuck at 46 percent in the polls?

What Marshall doesn't explain is why nobody has seen bin Laden since Tora Bora, or why there have been no major, catastrophic terror attacks on U.S. soil since then.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  23 October 2004
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What Would Mencken Do?

If legendary journalist H.L. Mencken was alive today and just starting out, what would he do?

Would he try working his way up the ladder in the newspaper business? Or would he, instead, work for himself and start blogging?

Maybe this is one of those pointless mental exercises, but it provides the chance to look at the real difference today between newspapers and blogs. It provides the chance to figure out who are the real keepers of the legacy of men like Benjamin Franklin and Mencken.

It was Mencken who said the job of a newspaper is to �comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable.� But who�s really doing that now? Bloggers or newspapers?

First let�s take a look at the gold standard of American journalism: The Pulitzer Prize.

Last year, the New York Times and PBS� Frontline collaborated on a piece that ran in print and on TV. (You can read it here.) It�s hard to argue against this piece winning the Pulitzer. The examination of how a large, profitable corporation � McWane Inc. - paid such little regard to its workers� well-being has all the elements of what in-depth journalism should be. The paper gave it time, resources and space. The writing is compelling and flows. It absolutely comforts the afflicted and afflicts the comfortable:

In the last decade, many American corporations have embraced such a vision of capitalism � cutting costs, laying off workers and pressing those who remain to labor harder, longer and more efficiently. But top federal and state regulators say McWane has taken this idea to the extreme. Describing the company's business, they use the words "lawless" and "rogue."

The company's managers call it "the McWane way."

Only the people involved in crafting this story know how long it took to put those four sentences together. A good bet: a very long time.

It�s journalism like this that inspires kids in high school and college to get into the business. But is it the exception or the rule? It�s probably not quite either. Here are some more examples of great journalism. Each one of these stories and series must have taken a grueling effort. When you work for an organization with deep pockets, libel lawsuits are always an issue � more so when you�re exposing wrongdoing, corruption or human suffering. You want to make sure you don�t get sued. But these reporters also want to get it right.

It�s easy to rip �MSM� for being biased, self-serving and loathsome. Often, it is. But, come on. There�s more to the story as those stories show. The problem is that these stories aren�t every day events. That�s why they win awards. They stand out.

Now let�s take a look at the best of the blogs. What would Mencken think of them? Do they afflict the comfortable and comfort the afflicted?

You can�t argue with Strengthen The Good, a collaborative effort of a number of bloggers to put the spotlight on people who need help. Blogs like this even go a step further: They deliver that help.

Who can forget Chief Wiggles efforts to bring toys to kids in Iraq war zones? The effort was even noticed by President Bush.

How about afflicting the comfortable? You can find examples of this faster than you can say, �Rathergate.� Or �Trent Lott.� Or "Ted Rall." Or the name of anyone ever mentioned on Gawker.

So which wins, newspapers or blogs? Right now it looks like a tie. Newspapers still can hold true to the Mencken rule. But they don�t nearly often enough. There still seems to be too much newsroom bureaucracy and lawyering going on when it comes to important stories.

Blogs don�t really match the depth and texture of good newspapering � yet. But, man, every day bloggers are pounding it.

So where would Mencken turn, as a kid out of school, trying to break into journalism and writing? He would probably still opt for newspapers. He loved the prestige. He loved the access. He would probably be miserable inside today�s politically correct newsrooms. Editors would not even want him today if he couldn�t keep his bigotries under control. But Mencken loved newspapers.

One can only imagine, though, how he would have liveblogged the Scopes Monkey Trial.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  23 October 2004
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Tracking Poll Rehab

One poll story today, and then it's tracking poll cold turkey until next week. Seriously. We can quit at any time.

Reuters Poll: Bush Holds Two-Point Lead Over Kerry

The latest tracking detail from John Zogby finds a couple of interesting things. President Bush is polling measurably stronger in the "red states" than he did at this time in 2000. At the same time, John Kerry is polling measurably weaker in the "blue states" than Al Gore at this time four years ago.

Bush is polling better with women than he did four years ago. He's polling better with independents (according to Zogby.)

The Kerry strategy at this point seems to be two-fold: Win Ohio, and hire better lawyers in Florida.

After all this campaigning, debating, negative advertising and around-the-clock ad hominem attacks: it's come to this. Elmer Fudd and the stellar Florida electoral system.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  23 October 2004
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Mister Softee Is Ticked

Mister Softee is no softey. He's The company is suing people for what it says is trademark infringement and - get this - misappropriating the "Mr. Softee Jingle."

(If you don't know what the "Mr. Softee Jingle" is, you can hear it by clicking on the company's web site. Editor's Warning: We are not responsible for the music being stuck in your brain on an endless loop for the next 24 hours.)

A U.S. District Court judge today told the defendants (How do you defend yourself against Mister Softee?) that they can't have the lawsuit thrown out. The case has to move forward, with all the cold allegations sprinkled in.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  22 October 2004
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Words Are Cheap

Archbishop Charles J. Chaput of Denver writes this in an op-ed in today's New York Times:

Words are cheap. Actions matter. If we believe in the sanctity of life from conception to natural death, we need to prove that by our actions, including our political choices. Anything less leads to the corruption of our integrity. Patriotism, which is a virtue for people of all faiths, requires that we fight, ethically and nonviolently, for what we believe. Claiming that "we don't want to impose our beliefs on society" is not merely politically convenient; it is morally incoherent and irresponsible.

Does this matter? Well, during the past three days President Bush has pulled ahead of John Kerry - a Catholic who insists who won't impose his beliefs on anyone else when it comes to abortion - in the Zogby tracking poll.

In Reuters' coverage of the tracker, it reports that Bush and Kerry are now tied when it comes to the Catholic vote. Earlier in the campaign, Kerry had a slight lead among Catholics. And now one of the country's Catholic archbishops is establishing a framework he thinks should guide their vote - a framework that puts Kerry clearly on the outs.

Watch this topic over the next few days.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  22 October 2004
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Persian Gulf Update

Even Andrew Sullivan is sounding upbeat now about new developments in Iraq toward January elections.

Who is sounding downbeat? The Iranian leadership, which can't be happy about freedom and democracy about to take root next door.

There is still a lot of turmoil over there - a top official just quit the Iranian cabinet - because of continued outrage at the suppression of a slate of pro-reform, pro-democracy candidates in the country's last elections.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  22 October 2004
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She's Not A Mom, But She Plays One To Bash Bush

Roy Asfar digs out some interesting details on Edie Falco, and her work on behalf of Mothers Opposing Bush.

Two years ago, during an interview on NPR, Bob Edwards asked her about playing such an intense mom on The Sopranos. Her reply:

"It's called acting. I was actually most concerned about the aspect of having children, grown children...children at all, as I don't."

Here's how she comes across today in an anti-Bush ad as spokeswoman for Mothers Opposing Bush.

(Get it? "MOB".)

Aside from Roy, this doesn't seem to have gotten any attention. It's worth wondering if this would be the same if she did commercials for MOK - Moms Opposing Kerry.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  21 October 2004
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Quote of the Day

Sissy Willis: "How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die* in a John Kerry hunting photo op -- How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for a mistake?"

By Ed Moltzen  ·  21 October 2004
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Poll Dancing

Some folks, including Mickey Kaus, have been pointing to the Mystery Pollster's analysis of all the disparate polls in Ohio, suggesting they're pretty consistent and really not such great news for President Bush. The reason: Almost all the polls show Bush topping out at 47 percent in Ohio.

Well, let's take a look at Kerry's percentages among various pollsters in the national horserace as of Thursday morning: 47, 46, 46, 42, 47, 48, 44.5, 45, 44, 47, 44. He tops 47 percent once but falls beneath it seven times.

Now for Bush: 50, 46, 47, 49, 47, 48, 49.5, 47, 52, 52, 48, 50. Bush falls below 47 percent once, topping it eight times.

Mystery pollster calls the wild card the "incumbent factor" - meaning a showing of 47 percent for an incumbent telegraphs a loss. But how about the "I'm really not too hot on my candidate but I'm just saying I'm going to vote for him anyway" factor?

Even in the most favorable of the polls for Kerry, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, half of all who will vote for Kerry say they're voting against Bush, not for Kerry. Half. But three-quarters of all Bush supporters say their vote is about backing the president.

Are happy voters likely voters? We'll find out.

In the mean time, the polls are still a mess. But maybe not the kind of mess some people are hoping for.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  21 October 2004
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Mark Down This Date In History

Liberal blogger Oliver Willis is now touting the credibility of ultra conservative evangelist Pat Robertson.

Perhaps Alan Keyes is next?

By Ed Moltzen  ·  20 October 2004
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Real Work

Sean Hackbarth isn't impressed with Teresa Heinz Kerry's questioning of Laura Bush's work record, and presents some of the First Lady's resume in explaining why.

If you liked pink press conferences and leveraged trades on pork bellies when Hillary Clinton was first lady, you'll no doubt love four years with THK.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  20 October 2004
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Urban Renewel, Fallujah Style

This moved out of Centcom this morning:

ZARQAWI SAFE HOUSE DESTROYED

FALLUJAH, IRAQ — Several Abu Musab Al Zarqawi safe houses and weapons storage facilities in southern Fallujah were struck as part of continued operations to thwart the Zarqawi terrorist network plans to attack the Iraqi government and its people during Ramadan.

The strikes occurred between 10:55 p.m. Oct. 18 and 12:31 a.m. Oct. 19. Multiple secondary explosions indicate a significant amount of explosives or ammunition inside the houses.

Specifically reported to operate at locations in Fallujah, are Abu Musab al Zarqawi associates identified as replacements for senior leadership recently killed in Multi-National Force-Iraq strikes. The recent strikes against the Zarqawi network have changed the leadership structure of the terrorist group causing numerous reorganizations within the group.

Abu Musab al Zarqawi is not a native Iraqi. He's been a terrorist in Afghanistan, assassinated a U.S. diplomat in Jordan and has been coordinating terror attacks in and out of Baghdad. Now, it appears, he's fighting for his life.

If nothing else, it's hard to imagine he's getting a good night's sleep.

MORE: Now the Coalition has taken out a Zarqawi command and control post.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  20 October 2004
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Rupert Murdoch's Business Partner

The next time you have a complaint about slanted coverage on Fox News Channel, you might be better off going straight to one of its part-owners, John Kerry

(Via OpenSecrets.org)

(Editor's Note: Ok, Ok. The income reported on Kerry's financial disclosure is listed as "capital gains," meaning it's possible that was because Kerry dumped any shares of News Corp. before he ran for president. Still, it doesn't seem like the Kerry family had any qualms about putting its money behind Rupert Murdoch.)

By Ed Moltzen  ·  19 October 2004
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A Democrat For Bush

(Via RealClearPolitics.com)

Sarah Baxter is a lifelong member of Britain's Labour party, but maintains citizenship here and recently registered to vote in the U.S. as a Democrat. On Nov. 2, she'll be voting here for the first time and will pull the lever for President Bush:

When the metrosexual chap standing next to me confides that urban sophisticates prefer Kerry because “you have to have a low IQ to appreciate Bush”, I know I am making the right decision.

“The guy is an idiot,” he continued snobbishly. “I don’t know what the rest of the country is thinking.”

Perhaps I can enlighten him. I will be one of the millions voting for Bush because I trust the president’s judgment on the war on terror more than Kerry’s. In this election, I am a single-issue voter. It is that simple. Even in the New York metropolis, there are more of us out there than he imagines.

She's not alone. In the most recent Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll, 15 percent of all Democrats say they are voting Bush-Cheney. Some other surveys have shown as many as one in five Democrats will vote for the president rather than John Kerry.

These Democrats appear to be on board with Zell Miller's remarks at the Republican National Convention when it comes to the war on terror: "...(M)y family is more important than my party."

Kerry may be able to swing over undecided independents. But that will mean not much if he loses Democrats like Miller and Baxter in the process.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  19 October 2004
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Iraq Attack

Terrorists have killed or wounded about 100 Iraqis in a mortar attack on an Iraq National Guard headquarters, news services are reporting.

This is happening at the same time as a major offensive against remaining terrorist hornets nests in places like Fallujah and Ramadi.

Most of the people doing the attacking - and dying - would appear to be foreign terrorists inside Iraq, although the mortar attack this morning is a bad blow to pro-democracy forces.

Still, reports are hazy as to how many are dead, and how many wounded, in the attack this morning.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  19 October 2004
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The Polls

The Bush Campaign's Matthew Dowd sent out an email to supporters last night noting that almost all the national polls put President Bush in at least a slight lead over John Kerry, and he writes:

No challenger who trailed an incumbent president after the conclusion of the debates has ever gone on to win.

There have been two challengers who have been in that position: Walter Mondale in '84 and Bob Dole in '96. Both had problems that Kerry doesn't have. Both also had strengths that Kerry doesn't have. (Both, in fact, had the experience of a national campaign under their belts as vice presidential nominees before they took top billing.)

The polls this year are a mess. There are too many of them and they are too volatile. Mickey Kaus has been especially brutal on The Times' Adam Nagourney this year for consistently burying any and all polling data that shows President Bush with any kind of strength.

But almost all of the polls show President Bush ahead in the popular vote among both registered voters and "likely voters." All of the internals on the key issues - leadership, Iraq, terrorism, likeability - all favor the president. And, remember, Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and still won the election.

So where does all this lead? Andrew Sullivan - a walking, breathing anti-Bush machine for the past few months - writes, "...if the public thinks things are this bad and still aren't breaking decisively for Kerry, what does that say about the challenger?"

Hey: If John Kerry is powerful enough to make the paralyzed walk, turning around the polls and taking an election should be a piece of cake, right?

By Ed Moltzen  ·  19 October 2004
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The Heart Of The Matter

Some days, this seems like a better idea than others:

First Patients Get Wireless Reading of Pressure Inside Their Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Essentially, doctors have figured out a way to insert microchip-based, blood-pressure reading equipment into someone's aortic aneurysm, and send the readings to the patient or doctor.

Cool.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  19 October 2004
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They Can Run...

The Marines gave such a pounding to terrorists in Fallujah over the weekend, they were forced to run and hide. Their hiding place shouldn't come as a surprise:

Insurgents then fired accurate and sustained small arms fire that escalated to heavy machine gun and indirect fire during a firefight lasting just over nine hours.

After close air support was requested and several precision-guided munitions were dropped, insurgents were seen putting their mortar tubes into a taxi and pickup trucks then driving to a mosque. They were witnessed entering a mosque.

Marines did not fire upon the mosque.

This approach didn't work for the Sadr terrorists. Maybe they missed those headlines.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  18 October 2004
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The Last, Swift Shots

Here is the last ad put together by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Of all the commercials this (and this) are the most damning yet.

There are about 90 veterans gathered in the two 30-second spots. Good luck to the opposition research folks tracking them all down for connections to the Bush Campaign. From one of the spots:

Today, they are teachers, farmers, businessmen, ministers, community leaders and, of course, fathers and grandfathers.

And, as Bob Dole notes, not all of them can be "Republican liars."

All of the men pictured look like the guys you see in your local hardware store, on line at the bank, working as ushers in church or taking their grandchildren to the park. In Ohio.

And they all endorse the notion that John Kerry is unfit to be president. And they look like their minds are made up. Can they change any votes in fifteen days? Given what they accomplished in the fifteen days after the Democratic convention, it's hard to see how they can't.

MORE: Nouveau Patriot:

You know, I oppose Kerry because of his philosophy and his policies, but this stuff just makes me not like the man personally.

And Russell Wardlow:

I admit it. I never bought into the whole Swiftvet thing on a visceral level. Don't get me wrong, I thought it showed he was ambitious, status-grubbing and dishonest, and it strengthed my distaste for the guy, but not surprisingly, I didn't have the same sorts of feelings vets and family members of vets often did.

That changed, at least somewhat, upon seeing these two movies.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  18 October 2004
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The Times' Endorsement of Kerry

The New York Times endorsed John Kerry for president today and, in doing, misleads its readers about some pretty important issues. In particular:

Like the tax cuts, Mr. Bush's obsession with Saddam Hussein seemed closer to zealotry than mere policy. He sold the war to the American people, and to Congress, as an antiterrorist campaign even though Iraq had no known working relationship with Al Qaeda.

Well, that doesn't exactly square with the 9-11 Commission Report:

In March 1998, after Bin Ladin’s public fatwa against the United States, two al Qaeda members reportedly went to Iraq to meet with Iraqi intelligence. In July, an Iraqi delegation traveled to Afghanistan to meet first with the Taliban and then with Bin Ladin. Sources reported that one, or perhaps both, of these meetings was apparently arranged through Bin Ladin’s Egyptian deputy, Zawahiri, who had ties of his own to the Iraqis. In 1998, Iraq was under intensifying U.S. pressure, which culminated in a series of large air strikes in December.

…According to the reporting, Iraqi officials offered Bin Ladin safe haven in Iraq. Bin Ladin declined, apparently judging that his circumstances in Afghanistan remained more favorable than the Iraqi alternative. These reports describe friendly contacts and indicate some common themes in both sides’ hatred of the United States.

The 9-11 Commission said it found no evidence of a "collaborative" relationship between al Qaeda and Iraq. But the Times' seizure on that is misleading. Iraq offered safe haven to bin Laden. And they did this knowing bin Laden was plotting mass murder terror attacks against Americans. Under the Bush Doctrine, that's game, set and match.

So, on this point, the Times' main issue is that it disagrees with the Bush Doctrine. However, it is wholly unable to describe a Kerry Doctrine.

Writes Michele Catalano:

23 paragraphs in the NYT endorsement. Only three of those paragraphs detail why the NYT supports Kerry. The rest is an anti-Bush manifesto worthy of Democratic Underground.

What's done is done: The Times has endorsed John Kerry for president. The only question remaining, though, is whether this will help or hurt the Democratic nominee.

By Ed Moltzen  ·  17 October 2004
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Quote of the Day

"The final score was 19-8. Might as well have been 19-18." - Dan Shaughnessy, Boston Globe columnist, after the Yankees beat the Red Sox last night to take a 3-games-to-0 lead in the ALCS. (The Red Sox last won the World Series in 1918.)

By Ed Moltzen  ·  17 October 2004
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Rigged Presidential Gambling?

Donald Luskin writes an interesting item on possible trading irregularities at the Tradesports presidential futures market.

He notes at least one bulk futures purchase that drove the price of a Bush re-election option down by 80 percent (for at least a brief period of time).

It's never been