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Spinning the Bounce

USA Today/CNN/Gallup is reporting that John Kerry actually had a negative post-convention "bounce" in the polls this week. The last Democratic nominee to do so poorly was George McGovern, who accepted his nomination in 1972 at about 3 a.m. after credentials fights and his long, painstaking search that landed Thomas Eagleton as his running mate.

Kerry actually did better in timing his acceptance speech than McGovern and, it seems, picking a running mate. But it looks like he didn't find any new takers for his message either.

Make no mistake about it: this is huge. In American politics, perception can mean a lot. And right now it looks like Kerry has hit the wall. What are others saying?

Steven Taylor:"...if you are Kerry you sure don't want comparisons to the 1972 Democratic convention."

G. Thomas Fitzpatrick: "...Republican strategists can be forgiven if they take a moment to think about expanding our control of both houses of Congress, and don't take too seriously the prospect of losing the White House."

Hoffmania: "Let's see what (Fox News) predict(s) for Bush's bounce. My guess is that they'll try to pull the 'honesty' card and admit they shot too high for Kerry, so they'll keep the expectations low - like 4-6 points. That way, a 7-point jump will 'shatter all expectations.'"

Eric Jay: "Looks to me like a dead cat bounce. If I were on the Kerry/Edwards team I'd be concerned. "

Today's news of an increased terror alert level produced a response from the Kerry campaign. However, it didn't come from Kerry. It came from Dr. Susan Rice, a Kerry homeland security advisor:

“Today’s announcement from Secretary Ridge reminds us of the serious continuing threat we face, and that we are not as safe as we could or should be.

She added this:

We have a message today for al Qaeda or any terrorist who may be thinking of attacking our country: John Kerry and John Edwards will bring all aspects of our nation’s power to crush al Qaeda and destroy terrorist networks.

Rice worked in the State Department in the Clinton Administration during the U.S. embassy bombings in Africa in 1998. She was part of an administration that blocked the FBI from pursuing critical leads in that terrorist hunt for what law enforcement officials believed were shaky diplomatic reasons. And now, Rice is a top advisor to Kerry.

While that may be inside baseball to most Americans, it begs the question of whether the Kerry camp has the foundation needed to win over skeptics.

By Ed Moltzen  ·   1 August 2004
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